To accurately study the establishment of a vector-borne disease and the possible development of an outbreak, we must understand the species present in that given ecosystem. The dynamics of a vector-borne disease will then be affected directly by the species that serve as a host for the vector, their respective ecological and epidemiological interactions, as well as indirectly by predators or competitors of the host species, competition with other vector species and the ecological interaction with non-host species. If we are to quantify emergence capabilities for vector-borne diseases it is crucial to understand the influence of the ecosystem context and interactions.

Models and computational tools will be developed to gain new insights and quantify the influence of ecosystem characteristics on the emergence of vector-borne diseases. Some of the ongoing projects include understanding the trade-off between vector feeding preferences and co-infection penalty on the emergence of a second disease; optimizing models for ecosystems with multiple vectors and multiple hosts; or determining the minimum number of host classes that can accurately describe superspreading events.

In a nutshell, some objectives of my project are: extending the generic modelling approach to fully incorporate vectors, hosts, and non-competent species, with a special focus on their respective ecological interactions; quantifying how these species interactions affect the basic reproduction number using compartmental models; and evaluating the sensitivity and elasticity of these estimates.